Monday, February 23, 2004
DCBA Top Three
Three weeks in, and the Elephants are right where they thought they were before the draft, third place behind the Woodies and Keteers, and with the rest of the league close behind them. Lets see how these three teams break down.
Homers
1) Woodies are off to a good start with Choi & Cabrera jumping out of the gate, and they'll get even more with Sanders, Cameron, Piazza, Nevin, Kent, and MGiles waiting to go off.
2) Keteers have fewer power bats but include Pujols and Dunn along with Jenkins and maybe Beltre. Preston Wilson's injury hurts them.
3) Elephants send out Burntiz, Giles, Craig Wilson and Nick Johnson to provide the power. They could use some homer help.
RBIs
1) Woodies also have Sean Burroughs, Tike Redman and Brian Schneider to fill the RBI gap. Todd Walker may get more playing time in Chicago as well.
2) Elephants compensate for their lack of homers with good RBI guys like Casey, Renteria, Polanco, Cintron, Finley, Larson and Nick Johnson.
3) Keteers fill their offense with Ramon Castro, Beltre, Hernandez, Alomar, Wigginton, Payton, Conine and Hill. A lot of question marks in that group.
Stolen bases
1) Woodies have great SB options in Cameron and Sanders, and will also get some from MGiles, Burroughs and Everett. The big contributor may end up being Jose Reyes if he can overcome his injuries.
2) Elephants get steals from a variety of sources including Renteria, Polanco, Cintron, Burnitz and Goodwin.
3) Keteers have Luis Castillo and maybe a few scattered SBs from Dunn, Payton and Hill.
Batting average
1) Elephants have several .300+ hitters in Casey, Renteria, Polanco, Cintron and Giles and risks are limited to part-time players easily replaced.
2) Woodies have several dangerous (for them) hitters in Cameron, Choi, Everett and Patterson.
3) Keteers have risky players aplenty here with Hernandez and Dunn and only Pujols and Castillo can be counted on for .300.
Offensive Depth
1) Jose Reyes, Kerry Robinson & Keith Ginter are currently on the Woodie bench.
2) Jeffrey Hammonds is currently in for Nick Johnson, but depth may grow when Antonio Perez and Russ Branyan return to the bigs.
3) With Preston Wilson out a while, the Keteers have no depth and will have a hole soon where Alomar stood. Seven minor league hitters but none likely to play for awhile.
Starters
1) Keteers have strong rotation of Big Unit, Clemens, Penny, Leiter, Clement and Lawrence. As long as five of these stay healthy, the Keteers will be among the top in wins, ERA and ratio.
2) Woodies rotation of Beckett, Pettitte, Armas, Myers, Ortiz, Benson and Marquis is deep and could rack up wins. Many of these are health or trade risks and other than Beckett no one can be counted on for great ERA/WHIP.
3) Elephants first five are strong in Roy O, Sheets, Livan, Glavine and Jose Acevedo, but they have only Ismael Valdez to fall back on.
Closers / Relievers
1) Keteers sport Octavio Dotel and Trevor Hoffman as closers with Chad Cordero waiting in the wings, so saves should be a strength.
2) Elephants have the Giants closer in Herges/Nen and can only hope for Jeremy Fikac to get a look in Montreal.
3) Woodies have the #2 closer on several teams with Hawkins, Fox, Lidge and Stanton. Hawkins may get the job in Chicago soon, but the others need an injury at this point.
Pitching Depth
1) Woodies have excellent depth with two starters already on reserve, and three active relievers. Brandon Claussen, Seung Song and Dan Haren may contribute before the year is out.
2) Elephants have a little depth with Ismael Valdez and Ryan Madson waiting in the wings with Robb Nen.
3) Keteers have three mediocre middle relievers and not much else.
Trade Bait
1) Elephants have Wilson(6B), Polanco(7B), Cintron(10A), Burnitz(14B), Larson(3A), Roy O (15D05), Livan(10B), Acevedo(1A) and a Giants closer under $22 to trade. They also have excellent NC prospects like David Wright, Scott Hairston, Brendan Harris and Brad Nelson.
2) The Woodies have Choi(10B), Nevin(12B), Burroughs(10A), Patterson(10B), Cabrera(10B), Reyes(NC), Lidge(1B) and pitching NCs like Kazmir, Buchholz and Claussen as their primary tradebait.
3) Keteers have Jenkins(13B), Dotel(12B), Hoffman (21B), Penny(6B), Cordero(8A) as primary tradebait. Among their NCs are highly rated prospects J.J. Hardy and Josh Barfield.
Overview
Its gonna be tough for the Keteers and Elephants to keep up with the pitching and hitting of the Woodies. The Woodies need to trade to patch their Achilles heel of a bullpen. The Keteers could use more offense but don't have as much to deal. The Elephants have a lot of holes on offense, and could use a second closer so they have their work cut out for them.
posted by Mariner Optimist 9:24 AM
Sunday, August 24, 2003
...Down 7 points with 5 weeks to go
Well, here we are in the homestretch, and the Payolahs have surged to an 86-79 lead in the race for the pennant. Lets look at how things match up down the stretch.
Payolahs Status:
Payolahs lose Cliff Floyd for rest of year. Eric Young dealt from Milwaukee to Giants where SB attempts should decrease. Livan continues to carry the Payolahs pitching staff while they hold their breath over Curt Schilling's latest tweak. Still, pitching staff of 4 starters, 4 relievers and 1 closer could fade in wins down the stretch, though Livan, Schilling & Russ Ortiz have been gathering wins like crazy.
Elephants Status:
Offense keeps humming along, but a Reggie Sanders trade could wreak havoc. Ben Sheets got lit up, and then only pitched 1 inning before a tweak pulled him out, we'll see how he goes on Sunday. His loss would hurt. Wilson Alvarez has been a pleasant surprise. Mark Lincoln has completely sucked as a closer, and Rod Beck will lose closer role if Trevor Hoffman comes back in September. Elephants also currently only have 4 starters, but have Redman and Oswalt available on the bench. Javier Vazquez has been dominant but Kevin Millwood has been shaky.
September Roster Expansion:
Payolahs have full-timers Rich Aurilia and Alex Cora and possibly Fred McGriff (but who can tell what his status is), and part-timers Marcus Scutaro, Joe Vitiello, Migeul Ojeda, Kelly Stinnett, Jeffrey Hammonds and Doug Glanville. Shane Reynolds could join the pitching staff.
Elephants have Randall Simon, Tyler Houston and Abraham Nunez available to spark the offense. The strength here is the Elephants pitching bench which currently contains Mark Redman, Roy Oswalt, Mike Dejean, Andy Ashby, Salomon Torres, John Franco, Mark Guthrie and Shawn Estes. Oswalt may be the key to an Elephants comeback.
Standings Evaluation:
HR: Elephants 12 back of Varks; Payolahs 14 back of Elephants and 9 up on Cervezas. Cervezas addition of Mondesi & Ventura and Payolahs loss of Floyd may cost the Payolahs a point here. Varks should be able to hold off Elephants.
RBI: Look pretty static, though there's a chance Varks could gain 33 RBIs on Elephants to take a point away.
SB: Payolahs 4 back of Ache Men but Juan Pierre and Eric Young have slowed of late. Will be tight, but likely another point for the Payolahs.
AVG:Elephants .0007 behind Cervezas and should gain the point. Payolahs .008 behind Elephants and only .0009 ahead of Varks and could lose a point.
Offense net: Payolahs gain 1pt or at worst lose 1pt. Elephants gain 1 pt or at worst do nothing.
W: Payolahs 3 up on HoDogs and 6 up on Elephants, who are 1 up on Cervezas. HoDogs also only have 4 starters. Interesting here.
Saves: Payolahs(Smoltz) 2 up on Benedicts(Wagner,Worrell) and 8 up on fast-moving Cervezas(Gagne,Kolb). Elephants(Mesa,Beck,Lincoln) 5 back of Rynochasers(Biddle) and 6 back of HoDogs(Mantei,Speier). 2-4 points might be gained by the Elephants here, but its gonna take Lincoln stepping up or Beck keeping his job to keep it from only being 1-2 points.
ERA: Payolahs .07 up on HoDogs, .17 up on Varks, .45 up on Elephants who are .07 up on Keteers, and .13 up on Benedicts. Elephants are on the rise here, though with Vazquez, Redman, Millwood, Oswalt, Sheets, Alvarez.
WHIP:Payolahs .021 up on Keteers, .041 up on Varks. Elephants .002 behind HoDogs, .018 behind Benedicts and .020 behind Varks. Another area for 2-3 points of gain for the Elephants.
Pitching is where Elephants could make up the ground, but they will need the saves, and a big move in the hard to predict wins. ERA and ratio gains are a must. One bad outing could end the season. Things are looking good for Payolah fans...
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:19 AM
Monday, August 11, 2003
Elephants unable to deal keepers
The Elephants kept the trade lines hot until the very end, but were unable to help the team despite offering very good keepers like Roy Oswalt (10B), Scott Podsednik (14B) and Jesse Foppert(NC).
Oswalt received offers of Ponson straight up, and Borowski/Casey for Oswalt/Burnitz. The Borowski/Casey deal was tempting, but it was decided that Burnitz HR might be needed to hold off Payolahs, and while waiting to hear about counter offer without Burnitz, Borowski was sent to the Varks for Placido Polanco of all people. This deal may be the one that puts the Varks over the top, or at the least, costs the Elephants their 4-peat. Oswalt for one of Woody Williams, Rocky Biddle, Dontrelle Willis. Even Oswalt for Miguel Batista + Ryan Wagner was turned down by the Woodies. This for a pitcher who in 100 injury plagued innings this year has still managed a 3.22 ERA and 1.256 WHIP.
Podsednik offers to the Cervezas and Benedicts got rejected due to the stratification of the steals category, and the tight battle these two teams are in for fourth place.
So the Elephants will go with what they got. Podsednik will likely be riding the pine, as the Elephants have the Coleman Cup wrapped up, and will likely be atop batting average soon, and that spot can be used to provide some HR/RBI. Oswalt is likely out until at least September, but while surgery has not been ruled out, it looks like he will pitch again, and the Elephants will have him active for those starts. It will be interesting to see what happens.
By not making a deal, the Elephants may come up short in 2003, but they look to once again be in the mix for 2004. They look set on the starting pitching side with Oswalt(10B), Millwood(15B), Vazquez(20A), Redman(5A) and Sheets(13D04) all priced to keep. Look for some rebuilding of the offense in the offseason around Podsednik(14B), Burnitz(14A), and Jimenez(5B). Not as strong as year's past, but still a solid core of players for under $100.
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:02 PM
DCBA Standings at the Deadline
With trading and FAABing complete for the year, here are the standings for the stretch run.
STANDINGS For The Dixie Chicken Baseball Association
Through games of 08.10.03
Team HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA RAT TOT +/-
Payolahs 10.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 82.0 1.5
Elephants 11.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 7.0 9.0 8.0 80.0 -0.5
Varks 12.0 11.0 7.0 10.0 7.0 4.0 11.0 12.0 74.0 2.0
Cervezas 9.0 10.0 5.0 12.0 9.0 10.0 5.0 3.0 63.0 1.5
Benedicts 8.0 8.0 1.0 9.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 9.0 61.0 -1.0
Ho-Dogs 3.0 6.0 11.0 2.0 11.0 8.5 10.0 7.0 58.5 0.5
Rynochasers 6.0 5.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 8.5 6.0 6.0 45.5 -0.5
Ache Men 7.0 4.0 10.0 7.0 3.5 5.5 3.0 2.0 42.0 1.5
Keteers 5.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 8.0 11.0 37.5 -2.0
Boards 2.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 32.0 0.5
Heads 4.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 5.5 1.0 1.0 30.5 -1.5
Woodies 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 18.0 -2.0
STANDINGS BY CATEGORY
HOME RUNS RBIS
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Varks 198 14 12.0 0.0 Elephants 786 34 12.0 0.0
Elephants 184 12 11.0 0.0 Varks 748 51 11.0 0.0
Payolahs 175 9 10.0 0.0 Cervezas 673 23 10.0 0.0
Cervezas 162 9 9.0 0.0 Payolahs 635 22 9.0 0.0
Benedicts 159 9 8.0 0.0 Benedicts 593 25 8.0 0.0
Ache Men 150 7 7.0 0.0 Heads 579 24 7.0 0.0
Rynochasers 139 6 6.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 548 14 6.0 0.0
Keteers 125 4 5.0 0.0 Rynochasers 543 18 5.0 0.0
Heads 121 7 4.0 1.0 Ache Men 538 27 4.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 120 2 3.0 -1.0 Boards 500 11 3.0 0.0
Boards 112 0 2.0 0.0 Keteers 431 9 2.0 0.0
Woodies 77 4 1.0 0.0 Woodies 358 16 1.0 0.0
STOLEN BASES AVERAGE
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Elephants 134 8 12.0 0.0 Cervezas .2836 .2823 12.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 101 3 11.0 0.0 Elephants .2809 .2667 11.0 0.0
Ache Men 86 4 10.0 0.0 Varks .2737 .2750 10.0 1.0
Payolahs 80 6 9.0 0.5 Benedicts .2729 .2526 9.0 -1.0
Boards 76 2 8.0 -0.5 Payolahs .2722 .2629 8.0 0.0
Varks 73 2 7.0 0.0 Ache Men .2690 .2647 7.0 1.0
Heads 65 4 6.0 0.0 Rynochasers .2688 .2581 6.0 1.0
Cervezas 53 3 5.0 0.0 Heads .2684 .2350 5.0 -2.0
Woodies 48 0 4.0 0.0 Boards .2664 .2990 4.0 0.0
Rynochasers 40 0 3.0 0.0 Keteers .2653 .2857 3.0 0.0
Keteers 37 0 2.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs .2617 .2622 2.0 1.0
Benedicts 31 1 1.0 0.0 Woodies .2612 .2447 1.0 -1.0
WINS SAVES
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Payolahs 69 4 12.0 0.0 Payolahs 62 2 12.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 63 4 11.0 0.5 Benedicts 58 2 11.0 0.0
Elephants 62 3 10.0 -0.5 Cervezas 46 6 10.0 1.5
Cervezas 58 3 9.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 44 4 8.5 0.0
Benedicts 57 4 8.0 0.0 Rynochasers 44 0 8.5 -1.5
Varks 55 4 7.0 0.0 Elephants 39 1 7.0 0.0
Boards 48 1 6.0 0.0 Heads 28 2 5.5 0.5
Rynochasers 45 1 5.0 0.0 Ache Men 28 0 5.5 -0.5
Keteers 44 2 3.5 0.0 Varks 24 4 4.0 1.0
Ache Men 44 2 3.5 0.0 Keteers 23 0 3.0 -1.0
Woodies 41 0 2.0 0.0 Boards 18 0 2.0 0.0
Heads 35 0 1.0 0.0 Woodies 7 0 1.0 0.0
ERA RATIO
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Payolahs 3.45 2.09 12.0 1.0 Varks 1.260 1.263 12.0 1.0
Varks 3.47 3.38 11.0 -1.0 Keteers 1.261 1.374 11.0 -1.0
Ho-Dogs 3.57 1.98 10.0 0.0 Payolahs 1.263 1.077 10.0 0.0
Elephants 3.85 3.86 9.0 0.0 Benedicts 1.289 1.272 9.0 0.0
Keteers 3.95 4.53 8.0 0.0 Elephants 1.307 1.071 8.0 0.0
Benedicts 3.96 2.38 7.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 1.320 1.156 7.0 0.0
Rynochasers 4.19 3.05 6.0 0.0 Rynochasers 1.371 1.195 6.0 0.0
Cervezas 4.21 2.92 5.0 0.0 Boards 1.374 1.118 5.0 1.0
Woodies 4.40 3.50 4.0 0.0 Woodies 1.387 1.528 4.0 -1.0
Ache Men 4.51 1.88 3.0 0.0 Cervezas 1.400 1.166 3.0 0.0
Boards 4.55 3.18 2.0 0.0 Ache Men 1.419 1.070 2.0 1.0
Heads 4.62 3.81 1.0 0.0 Heads 1.425 1.341 1.0 -1.0
posted by Mariner Optimist 12:33 PM
Sunday, August 10, 2003
Trade Deadline Deals
Activity between the MLB trading deadline of 8/1 and the DCBA trade deadline of 8/11 is coming in fast and furious. Keep in mind, that teams can only deal 2 players to any other team after the All-Star Break. Here is what happened...
Elephants bolster bench
8/11 11:30am. In a last-minute deal that may pay off handsomely for the Woodies, the Elephants dealt Aaron Boone 21B and Matt Kinney for bench players Ramon Martinez and Tyler Houston.
Varks grab Borowski
8/11 12:30am. Varks grab another much-needed closer for the stretch run, and may have pilfered a great keeper from the Heads, grabbing 10A Joe Borowski along Ty Wigginton for 7A Placido Polanco and Yankee Bret Prinz.
The interesting thing is that the Varks may have gotten the better keeper. Polanco's 10/50/.290/10 career year if it continued out this year would make him a $20 player next year, saving the Heads $13 at the auction table. If Borowski stays a closer, its easy to see him costing more than $23 at next year's auction.
Pennant impact: Could be huge. The Varks will gain two points in saves. This becomes huge if their three-headed closer of Isringhausen, Borowski and Looper can grab 20 saves to catch the Rynochasers, or gain 15 saves on the Elephants.
Elephants spin: Again, the Elephants were in the bidding for Borowski, with a deal centered around Roy Oswalt. But the Elephants balked at sending both Oswalt and Jeromy Burnitz for Borowski & Sean Casey, and in the end, the Heads went to the competition, as they had threatened.
Elephants add Mike Lincoln
8/10 1pm. The Elephants, desperate for saves down the stretch, sent Tomo Okha (6A) to the Rynochasers for 20B Mike Lincoln.
Pennant Race Impact: Saves is the area where the Elephants can most easily help themselves. With Mesa and DeJean currently banished from save opportunities, they are 5-7 saves behind 1-3 standings points. With the Rynochasers one of those teams, this trade should guarantee the Elephants 1 standings point. And perhaps more importantly, it prevents the Elephants from ever starting Tomo Okha down the stretch. Okha has been the most consistently inconsistent starter in the NL this year, and the Elephants have mastered the timing on the bad side. While on the Elephants bench, Okha picked up 4 wins with a 3.69 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 53 innings. As an active Elephant, Okha also has 4 wins, but has brutalized the Elephants with a 5.38 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 80 innings. Swap those two sets of numbers, and the Elephants would gain six standings points in ERA & WHIP.
Varks land Sidney Ponson
8/10 1pm. Varks send Joe Thurston & Bobby Hill, two former top prospects fallen on hard times to the Keteers for Sidney Ponson. Good deal for the Varks, who essentially give up two NC players whom their teams appear to have given up on, or slated as utility infielders at best.
Pennant Race Impact: Ponson replaces the highly flammable Jason Jennings (4H, 4ER in 1 inning in his last "start") in the Varks rotation, so this should help Kevin immensely. If Ponson is a stud, he could get enough wins to get 2 points in that category easily and maybe pass one or more of the HoDogs/Payolahs/Elephants who are currently 8 or more wins ahead. More likely, he might improve the Varks ERA and WHIP enough to climb to the top of the standings in both, gaining them 3 points, and more importantly, costing the Payolahs 2 points. If the Payolahs lose those two points, this might be the trade that gives the Elephants their 4th straight championship.
Elephants spin: Elephants were offered Ponson for Roy Oswalt straight up, and were wise not to take that deal, as the going price for Ponson is obvioiusly less than a $10 staff ace, no matter what his groin issues are. Elephants offered Jesse Foppert but were told straight up that it was Roy O or no deal. Since Roy O in September could end up outperforming Sidney Ponson in August/September, the Elephants didn't think twice on this one.
Ache Men "Standing Pat"
8/8 4pm.
After numerous emails went unanswered, the Elephants GM Yertle T. Turtle finally broke down and called the Ache Man himself at hope with an offer of Roy Oswalt for Barry Bonds & Wade Miller. Troy's response was a firm, "we are not going to make any trades this year." The inactivity of the Ache Men is one of the bigger mysteries of the trade season, as they have been going nowhere for months, and had the most tradebait available, and have traditionally been major players in the trade market. The Elephants fear this may be a sign that Troy is thinking of hanging up the Ache Men mantle next year, and felt it would be improper to impact the pennant race in his final year. Time (and Troy) will tell...
Trade Deadline costs Payolahs & Elephants
8/1.
With the dust settling on the MLB trade deadline, the top 2 teams in the DCBA were both hurt by trades sending productive players to the American League. The Payolahs lost surprising stud Jose Guillen as he was dealt to the A's. The Payolahs had another loss in closer Armando Benitez, but with their large lead in saves, this is unlikely to affect the Payolahs greatly. The Elephants lost power when Aaron Boone went from the Reds to the Yankees, but may actually gain in batting average as a result, as D'Angelo Jimenez replaces him at 2B. The big winner of these moves seems to be the Varks as they only lost potential September callup Bret Prinz to the Yankees.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:20 PM
Friday, July 11, 2003
...HoDogs make their move
A couple of weeks ago, we did an analysis that showed the HoDogs as the only legitimate contender with a lot of trinkets to trade. Well, that did not prove wholly correct as the Payolahs turned a $17 Woody Williams into Curt Schilling, Rich Aurilia AND Armando Benitez, but we are not all the trading wizards that Joe is...
This week, the HoDogs made their move with a 12-player deal with the Rynochasers.
Going to Rynochasers:
David Roberts(8B) - steals are an area where HoDogs can afford to lose. Unfortunately, this means the HoDogs may lose 1 or 2 points, but likely one of those will be to the Payolahs, the primary competitor to the Elephants. 8B Roberts is a very nice keeper, likely to generate 5 steals for every dollar spent.
Juan Encarnacion(19B) - 20/20 guy for $19 is a reasonable keeper, as long as he is allowed to run.
J.D. Drew(16A). This one as with all things J.D.Drew, depends on his health. Seems worth the risk.
Dontrelle Willis(10A). This one may haunt the HoDogs for years to come. Or Dontrelle may just be a flash in the pan. Either way, if you've seen him pitch, you know he's gotta be fun to own.
Tim Spooneybarger(1B). Hurt this year, he could be the Marlins closer by this time next year.
Duaner Sanchez(NC). If a "relief prospect" exists, then Sanchez is it. Could work his way into the Pirates closer mix by next year.
Going to the HoDogs:
Jim Edmonds(34A). Huge HR/RBI totals and a .300+ hitter essentially is a much healthier, reliable J.D. Drew.
Lance Berkman(15D03) Slumping this year, but still good for a little more pop than Juan Encarnacion, although their numbers are frighteningly similar this year (Berkman - 16/58/.281, Encarnacion - 12/55/.277 + steals)
Vlad Guerrero(25D03). The offensive wildcard. If he comes back healthy, and soon, he is the HR/RBI machine the HoDogs need and will replace Raul Gonzalez in the lineup. Assume his production will probably match J.D. Drew over rest of the year.
Tino Martinez(20A) Not much on his own, but when you consider that he will replace Lenny freakin Harris in the HoDogs lineup, then this is another big HR/RBI boost.
Steve Trachsel(4C) Wins and decent enough ERA/WHIP
Elmer Dessens(2C) Heading for the bench, methinks, Dessens provides pitching depth at least.
So net effect is the HoDogs get more power and batting average (Vlad + Edmonds power numbers is approx. net), and lose out on speed (subtract Roberts) and pitching (Willis - Trachsel). The trade certainly addresses the HoDogs power needs and may gain them as much as 6 standings points(SPs) in HR, 3-4 in RBI, and 4-5 in BA. Unfortunately it will likely cost them 2-3 points in SBs, and a point or two in ERA and ratio. But a net gain of 10 or more SPs is a trade worth making and moves the HoDogs from 6th place to 3rd place with a legitimate shot at the Championship.
While the Rynochasers last trade was considerably one-sided in favor of the Payolahs, I think they came out very well in this one. They have one sure stud keeper in Roberts, two seemingly good keepers in Drew and Encarnacion, and have two pulls at the slot machine of great keepers in Willis and Spooneybarger.
How will this affect the top two teams? The Payolahs will likely catch the HoDogs in SBs, but be passed by the HoDogs in BA. Neither team should be threatened in the power categories. And this about locks up the Coleman Cup for the Elephants, unless the Payolahs are able to catch them with their Pierre/Castillo/Young triumverate. It may free up the Elephants to deal some of their excess speed. On the pitching side, I think this trade helps catch the HoDogs in wins, ERA and Saves, and only pads the margin of error for the Payolahs. So the Elephants may be secondary beneficiaries of this deal, if things break right, and the HoDogs could be setting themselves up for another second place finish.
posted by Mariner Optimist 12:30 PM
Tuesday, July 08, 2003
...Pirating an offense
A stunning realization came to me moments ago. 6 of the 15 Elephants offensive starters come from the Pittsburgh Pirates! Yes, the Elephants are winning with all 3 starting outfielders (Lofton, Giles, Sanders), the starting 3B (Ramirez) and two Pirate catchers (Kendall & Wilson). Amazing!
Of course, since the acquisition of Pirates 5 & 6, the Elephants have slipped out of first place, so maybe the clubhouse needs an infusion of non-Pirate blood. There will certainly be no other Pirates sluggers joining the Elephants, but we would be willing to take on pitchers like Kip Wells, Kris Benson, or maybe even "All-Star" Mike Williams.
posted by Mariner Optimist 9:22 AM
Wednesday, July 02, 2003
...Payolahs use Elephant Analysis to their Advantage
In my May 22 entry, I wrote "It may be time for the Elephants to stop giving Payolahs free advice before it bites them in the trunk..." Apparently, I should have written that sentence, and then deleted the whole entry before publishing it. The Payolahs obviously read the entry with great interest, came to similar conclusions, and acted to improve their team to overtake the Elephants.
Since that article breaking down the Payolah-Elephant race was published, the Payolahs consummated two huge deals.
First, in a nifty act of selling high, the Payolahs managed to parlay Tim Redding(3A), Matt Stairs(1A), Alex Cintron(NC), and Vance Wilson(10A) into Ivan Rodriquez and Brian Jordan (as well as Alex Cora and Chin Feng Chen)
A week later, they dealt Randy Wolf (8D04), Gary Matthews and Jason Stokes(NC) to the Boards for Juan Pierre, Jose Guillen and Brian Lawrence.
And finally, they dealt Woody Williams(17A), Jose Vizcaino, and prospect Nic Jackson to the Rynochasers for Curt Schilling, Armando Benitez, and Rich Aurilia. Essentially, they sold a $17 pitcher having a career year for three studs who all have some question marks. Schilling has been hurt, but when healthy, easily replaces Woody Williams.
I wrote on 5/22 that "[the Payolahs] biggest trade token would be 8D04 Randy Wolf, but they have to get an ace pitcher back as losing Wolf could result in a loss of points in W, ERA & WHIP. Second-tier keepers include Tim Redding (3A) and Woody Williams (17A), but losing either would hurt the pitching. The Payolahs NC's include Jason Stokes and Corey Hart, but they are likely 2+ years away. Alex Cintron could get on a hot streak and yield something, but he looks to be a utility infielder in the future, not the kind of guy that lands you a Todd Helton or Vlad Guerrero. "
Well, that's exactly who the Payolahs traded (except for Corey Hart, who they will probably somehow turn into Barry Bonds). And while they did not get Helton or the now-gimpy Vlad, they got quite a haul by adding Aurilia, Pierre, Pudge, Guillen and Jordan, and their pitching may even have improved (although the risk has also increased) by replacing Redding/Williams/Wolf with Schilling/Lawrence/Benitez.
I was gonna break down how these moves helped each category for the Payolahs, but suffice to say, I will be providing no more analysis on how the Payolahs could improve their team :-) Well done, Joe!
posted by Mariner Optimist 4:04 PM
...And Alomar makes Bust #3
On Tuesday, Robert Alomar (2/22/6/.262) was traded by the Mets out of the NL to the Chicago White Sox. His trade closes the book on what may be the worst trio of picks ever assembled on a Championship contending team. Alomar $21, Mo Vaughn $23 (3/15/0/.190) and Robb Nen $29 cost the Elephants a combined $73 or more than 1/4 of the team's budget for the year. The combined production of 5 HRs, 37 RBIs, 6 SBs and a .250 batting average is about the projected statistics of $6 Craig Wilson.
So how are the Elephants still atop the standings (although the Payolahs probably will be there soon)? Frankly, I'm not sure. Preseason trades for Elephants MVP Preston Wilson (18/72/6/.301), Aaron Boone(15/47/11/.265), Orlando Cabrera(11/46/10/.295) and Austin Kearns(12/50/4/.288 before being traded) provided an outstanding offensive foundation that have the Elephants in first or second in every offensive category. The Elephants managed a few good auction buys in Robert Fick $14 (7/44/1/.309) and Kenny Lofton (8/25/15/.277) on the hitting side, and Kirk Rueter (7/3.60/1.388 before being traded) and Mark Redman $5 (6/2.77/1.143). And the Elephants found free agent gold in the form of Scott Podsednik(1/16/14/.358) who is looking like a keeper, even at $14.
Let's just hope the Elephants have seen their last AL defection of 2003. Another one will likely cost the Elephants the title.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:46 PM
Friday, June 13, 2003
...Matt Williams announces retirement
Starting 3B Matt Williams has announced his retirement after clearing waivers following his release by the Diamondbacks. Several teams were interested in Williams, most notably the Rockies, but Matt decided that he did not want to uproot his daughter, whom he has sole custody of, from their Arizona home. While Elephants management lauds the parenting skills of Mr. Williams, they do regret that he did not bring his bat to Coors.
posted by Mariner Optimist 8:50 AM
...Cervezas acquire Javier Lopez... and pay the price
Suddenly looking like the Rule 5 pick that he is, Javier Lopez allowed seven runs in two-thirds of an inning on Thursday, more than quadrupling his ERA.
Lopez had allowed two earned runs in 25 innings this season. His ERA went from 0.72 to 3.16.
The line for Lopez looks like...
IP - 2/3 H-8, ER-7, ERA-94.50, WHIP-12
Suffice to say, this acquisition does NOT look like it will help the Cervezas rise from the cellar of the ERA & WHIP standings to push them into the money.
posted by Mariner Optimist 8:44 AM
Tuesday, June 10, 2003
...Benedicts Surging
Two weeks after benching Nelson Cruz, the Benedicts have gained 13 points in the standings, and find themselves in third place, just 1 point behind the Payolahs, and only 5.5 points behind the first-place Elephants. Is this threat to the Elephants Championship run a real one?
With Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Todd Helton, and Jim Thome leading the offense, the power numbers for the Benedicts are real. They currently sit with 10 points in HR & RBI and have the guns to possibly even catch the Elephants in these categories. Batting average is also strong, but the Benedicts 11 points is very tenuous, and could be a weak point. The Benedicts have NO basestealers, so are unlikely to overcome their Achilles heel where they are dead last in stolen bases.
Pitching is the Benedicts strong suit right now, with the Eggs getting great contributions from Adam Eaton, Carl Pavano and Tim Worrell, and free agent pickups Jae Weong Seo and Claudio Vargas. Kerry Wood and Jason Schmidt anchor the staff and Billy Wagner provides a second stud reliever to keep the Benedicts high on the saves standings. The concern here would be depth, with nothing palatable sitting on reserves, the Eggs are extremely vulnerable to injury or another slump. But so far, Craig has done a fantastic job picking up free agent pitchers to fill holes.
The Eggs could really benefit from another starting pitcher, and some stolen base threats. Since these are unlikely to be found on the free agent market, they may need to wheel & deal to get over the top. Unfortunately for the Eggs, they have little of value to deal. $6 Tim Worrell is their best bargain, but his value for next season is a huge question mark and unlikely to get both a replacement closer and something else in return. $1 Carl Pavano or Hector Villafuerte are needed where they are, and are unlikely to reel in a bigger fish. The only good NC trade chit is Mets prospect David Wright, but he is not an elite prospect.
So the Eggs have a very good team, but this may be as good as it gets. A good pickup here or there in free agency, and they could sneak away with the title. But they have a very thin margin for error. Their best hope may be injuries/AL trades to the Elephants because if the Elephants fade, the race becomes wide open with no clear favorite. Welcome to a pennant race, Benedicts!
posted by Mariner Optimist 3:56 PM
Friday, May 30, 2003
...Tough Day for the Varks
Thursday, May 30th, may go down as the day that doomed the Varks 2003 Championship hopes. First, Byung Hyun Kim gets traded to the Red Sox, costing the Varks a $18 pitcher who had just returned from the DL, ready to rack up Wins and drive down ERA & WHIP for the Varks. Later in the evening, $5 stud Odalis Perez visits Coors and is pounded to the tune of 12 batters reaching and 9 ER in 3 innings.
Open up your FAAB wallet folks, here comes Shea Hillenbrand.
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:42 PM
Thursday, May 22, 2003
...Payolahs on the rise
As the Elephants settle into their second month in first place, a threat looms on the horizon. The Payolahs are a mere 5 points behind and are gaining fast. Lets take a look at each category and where things stand on 5/22 (real freakin' early).
HR:Elephants 78 (12), Payolahs 63 (10), three teams with 58 or more. Just two points back with the Varks in between. Sexson(15), Floyd(9), Klesko(8), Castilla(8), and McGriff(6) provide most of the pop for the Payolahs. They are probably slightly overachieving in the HR category at this point, and may lose ground here.
RBI:Elephants 318(12), Payolahs 229(6.5). The Payolahs have 1.5 points just 3RBI away, but could lose same. The homer guys provide most of the RBIs with Charles Johnson, and surprisingly Luis Castillo adding in double-digit RBIs. The Payolahs could use a big bat to secure their spot in HR and gain in RBI.
SB:Elephants 39(10), Payolahs 24 (5.5). Only 1.5 points is easy to grab for the Payolahs, but they did recently trade for Eric Young, and acquired Adam Everett, so they are moving in the right directioin. Castillo has yet to really heat up as well. Castillo & Young will keep these guys in the upper half of the SB race, and if Kotsay or Klesko can return to swiping bags, the Payolahs may actually pass the Elephants in this category. The Elephants rely on a handful of second-tier basestealers in Lofton, Alomar, Cabrera, Boone, Renteria, and PWilson, so are not as susceptible to a single injury as the Payolahs.
AVG:Elephants .276(11), Payolahs .264(3). An area where the Payolahs could gain significant points, as a climb to .270 would gain them the 5 points that separate them from the Elephants. Ahh, but can they do it. With their power comes a price, as Sexson, Castilla and McGriff will keep averages low. However, its safe to say that Klesko (.255 vs career .285), McGriff (.261 v. .286), and Floyd (.252 v. .284) have certainly been underperforming so far this year, and Coors should help Charles Johnson build on his .234 average.
Wins:Payolahs 30(12), Elephants 24 (10). Pitching is where the Payolahs excel, while the Elephants get wins with smoke and mirrors mostly. Randy Wolf, Russ Ortiz, and Woody Williams all have 5+ wins, and Roberto Hernandez has been a serviceable vulture with 3 of his own. The wildcards here are Tim Redding, Shane Reynolds, and Livan Hernandez. Can they provide wins without hurting WHIP/ERA? Probably enough to keep the Payolahs secure near the top of the wins column, but if an injury strikes Wolf, Ortiz or Williams, they will be struggling in a hurry.
Saves:Payolahs 32(12), Elephants 9(5). The cornerstone on which the Payolahs have been built is their bullpen. They had three closers to start the season, and have already dealt two away in deals for Ryan Klesko and Eric Young. And so they put their large lead (7-10 saves over three teams) in the hands of the unstoppable John Smoltz. This may cost them a point or two as 2-3 closer teams catch up. Of course, if Mesa blows up much more, they may have bought another closer in Turk Wendell, and the lead is secure. The Elephants meanwhile have room for growth in saves, but will likely have to deal for a closer as Mike Dejean is all they got when Cal Eldred turns back into a pumpkin in a few weeks when Isringhausen returns.
ERA: Payolahs 3.31(12), Elephants 3.69(9). The Elephants have Vazquez, Rueter, and Millwood to counter the Payolahs big 3, so this may come down to the second-tier of starters as the Elephants send out Jake Peavy, Tomo Okha, Mark Redman, and Pedro Astacio against the Payolahs Redding/Reynolds/Livan mix. I think this is an area where the Payolahs may falter a bit.
WHIP: Payolahs 1.260 (11), Elephants 1.352 (8). Not much danger of being caught in the near-term, and the Elephants reliance of WHIP abuse-prone Rueter and Vazquez could allow the Payolahs to even gain here.
Trade Analysis:It looks like the Payolahs could mainly use one power bat and batting average help. A player like Todd Helton or better yet Vlad Guerrero would help them immensely, and with the Payolahs ownership being on the good side of so many, and with a giant bullseye on the Elephants, the Payolahs just might be able to pull off a deal. But what do they have to trade? Their biggest trade token would be 8D04 Randy Wolf, but they have to get an ace pitcher back as losing Wolf could result in a loss of points in W, ERA & WHIP. Second-tier keepers include Tim Redding (3A) and Woody Williams (17A), but losing either would hurt the pitching. The Payolahs NC's include Jason Stokes and Corey Hart, but they are likely 2+ years away. Alex Cintron could get on a hot streak and yield something, but he looks to be a utility infielder in the future, not the kind of guy that lands you a Todd Helton or Vlad Guerrero.
I think the Payolahs have an excellent team, and a generous benefactor could push them over the top by trade. The Payolahs have been aggressive in both trading and acquiring free agents to improve their lot this year, and they look like they will be in the mix all year, with a good shot at the Elephants. It may be time for the Elephants to stop giving Payolahs free advice before it bites them in the trunk...
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:09 PM
...Damn statistics and the Benedicts
The Benedicts' Blog today attempted to pick apart an earlier Elephants critique that it was not all the Benedicts' Jinx causing the Benedicts problems. So lets examine the Benedicts rebuttals one by one.
True, Andruw Jones is on a pace to drive in a lot more runs than he did is 2002, but considering that Jones RBI production was down last year and that Atlanta's overall run production is up this year, the Jones development is hardly news.
Andruw Jones drove in 94 runs in 2002, 104 in 2001 and 104 in 2000. He has never driven in more than 104 runs. Aside from one .300 season, he has never hit higher than .275 and his batting average over last two years is .267. So I don't think my quote that "Andruw Jones is having a monster year" is to out of line when on 5/9 when I said it, Jones was batting .300 and on a pace for 45 HR and 160 RBI.
Sanchez hit .286 last year in a near full-time role--he is no Ernie Banks, but he has been what he has been. His 14 hits in 61 at bats this year hardly has an measurable effect on the Benedicts, a team without a breakout performer
Yes, he has been what he has been, a .280 hitter who may give you 35 RBI and a couple stolen bases, going on 36 years old. But I agree with the Benedicts, Sanchez is not the reason he is in middle of the pack. I was looking to bundle someone on the hitting side with Nelson Cruz, and he was the easiest target. I think mentally, I saw a Met shortstop named Rey and was thinking Ordonez. The much bigger problem is Cruz...
"Take Nelson Cruz out of the mix and the Benedicts pick up two ERA points and one ratio points...placing them squarely where they are--in the middle of the pack."
Here's the stats:
Through games of 5/21, the Benedicts had 383.3 IP, gave up 523 BB+H, and 178 ER, for an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.364.
Those stats include Mr. Nelson Cruz' line of 29.3 IP, 49 BB+H, and 27 ER.
Take Cruz away and you have a team ERA of 3.84 and WHIP of 1.339.
So through games of 5/21, removing Cruz' stats would actually gain 5 points (3 ERA & 2 WHIP), it also puts them in position to move up even further. For the Benedicts just to get back where they would be without Cruz, they need to have a pitcher throw 34 IP of shutout ball and give up only 36 H+BB (roughly a 1.0 ratio). It is much easier to hurt your pitching staff than it is to help it in the qualitative numbers. So, while undoing the activation of Cruz alone won't make the Benedicts the league-leader, nothing Nelson Cruz would've done could help make the Benedicts a league leader, and instead he is MUCH further away than he would be. You can't chase wins with Rockies starters if you want to win 4X4. The damage that one bad outing in Coors can do to your ERA&WHIP is too hard to recover from.
And the Benedicts go on to show how much they missed the point by saying...What is interesting here is that the Benedicts were interested in another Rockie journeyman, Shawn Chacon, early in the season. Chacon continues to pitch well. Actually, Chacon is helping the Cervezas back into the middle of the pack from their early hot start. The perception that Chacon is pitching well is tempered by the fact that he is in Coors where pitching well has a different meaning. Since the Cervezas worked up the courage to activate Chacon, he has betrayed them with 35.7 IP, 53 BB+H, and 21ER for a 5.30 ERA and 1.486 WHIP. While Chacon at least picked up 2 wins and his numbers are certainly better than Nelson Cruz, Chacon (and any Coors pitcher) is too flammable to rely on as a DCBA starter.
Then, there was the claim that on auction day, the Benedicts knew, and everyone should've known that Worrell was gonna be the closer all year. Corey also points to Tim Worrell as a sign things are going well for the Benedicts. Worrell saved his 13th game last night and the Giant closer's job is his this year for as long as he is successful, what with Robb Nen being lost for the season to injury. Worrell was an end game play for the Benedicts. Frankly, Worrell should not have been around for the end game. With saves at a premium and an already injured Nen having no clean bill of health on the horizon, Worrell, a solid veteran pitcher on a very good team, was a safe play at twice his current salary. I just have to say that I think most of the league thought that Nen would be back in a month, and that if gone longer, it would be Felix Rodriguez and not Tim Worrell who became the closer. That was my thought, obviously, but maybe I was the only one so misguided. So I will again give kudos to the Benedicts for picking up Worrell, and seeing what those around him couldn't. Chime in if you thought Worrell was worth $6 when purchased, and if so, why you didn't go $7...
The Benedicts will be looking to acquire for Worrell a player who will make a greater contribution to the team than Worrell will if he remains a Benedict. This was said as the Benedicts again attempt to invoke that their "curse" will determine the fate of Worrell. I wonder if any owner will trade for Worrell with the assumption that he will be a closer in 2004. I know I wouldn't, but then I've already proven that I am not one of "those who know better."
And finally, this tidbit...
Corey's commentary rings hollow for another reason too. He is the only player in this league where the likes of Austin Kearns is available for free.
Actually, Kearns cost me two *keepers* in Loduca and Wigginton. Now Jake Peavy, Jose Reyes, Brian Schneider for Billy Wagner and $34 in auction spending money, that's better than free. But really, saying that my commentary "rings hollow" because I've made a few good trades in the offseason rings of sour grapes. Here I am trying to help my fellow DCBA owner by pointing out the errors in his ways, and he gets "snippy" with me (as my grandmother would say). Note that Nelson Cruz has finally been reserved, and Rey Sanchez has luckily been hurt, and while Thome's production has bounced back, Andruw has returned back to earth a bit. The Benedicts remain in the hunt, but they have that much further uphill to climb. I will say, that the trade of Kotsay for Vina seems just what the doctor ordered for the Benedicts, especially with the understanding of Kotsay's back woes meaning he may never be alright this year...
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:06 PM
